9I制作厂网页版

光华讲坛——社会名流与公司家论坛第6800期

主题：Green finance for a fossil fuel supply chain under cap-and-trade regulation: Aligning recycling, downcycling, and stranded asset risks with SDGs 3 and 7限额交易制度下化石燃料供应链的绿色金融：将回收、降级利用和搁浅资产风险与可持续发展目标3和7相结合

主讲人：台湾淡江大学原副校长 林志鸿教授

主持人：经济学院 李雪莲教授

时间：10月11日9:30-11:30

地点：柳林校区诚正楼1542

主办单位：经济学院 科研处

主讲人介绍：

林志鸿，美国克拉克大学博士，台湾淡江大学国际公司学系教授、原淡江大学副校长。曾受聘担任9I制作厂网页版EMBA教育中心客座教授，并获9I制作厂网页版EMBA教学耕耘纪念奖。已在Energy Economics、International Review of Economics & Finance、Applied Economics等高水平学术刊物发表论文数十篇。因其贡献，曾获选Applied Economics全球前50名杰出审稿者。

内容提要：

Recycling, downcycling in production, and stranded asset management supported byinsurer-provided green finance are essential to achieving SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). This paper develops a contingent claim model to assess the equity and equity risk of both the insurer and the supply chain under cap-and-trade regulation. The supply chain includes an upstream fossil fuel company, a plastic manufacturer engaged in recycling, and an electric power company conducting downcycling for construction materials. The model evaluates the impacts of cap-and-trade policy changes, circular production strategies, and stranded asset risks, which are key factors for advancing sustainability. The findings show that slag downcycling and managing stranded assets in the fossil fuel supply chain support policyholder protection and advance SDGs 3 and 7. A stringent cap-and-trade mechanism decreases equity and raises equity risk for both upstream fossil fuel and downstream electric power companies, inducing financial instability for clean energy investment. Increased use of recycled materials in plastic production raises both equity and equity risk for the manufacturer. When electric power companies adopt slag downcycling, it further improves the upstream company’s equity and lowers its risk, reinforcing progress toward SDG 7 through coordinated supply chain actions.

在碳配额交易机制驱动下，化石燃料产业链向循环经济模式转型。作为核心转型路径，回收利用与降级再生策略虽然有利于公司实现碳减排目标，却对产业链运营和金融稳定性构成挑战，资产搁浅风险加剧。本次讲座基于或有权益分析框架，构建了循环经济风险评估模型，聚焦绿色金融支持下化石燃料产业链下游公司实施循环生产后的权益价值风险变动及其产业链传导效应。该研究深入探讨了气候政策规制、循环生产与转型风险间的动态关联机制，对统筹推进厂顿骋3（良好健康与福祉）与厂顿骋7（经济适用的清洁能源）等可持续发展目标具有重要意义。